Actual result
R+15.0
Final polls said
R+12.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+10.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gravis Marketing | R+12.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+10.8 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Montana State University Billings | R+7.0 | 8.0 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | 2014-10-23 | 604 | R+12.0 | 3 |
| Montana State University Billings | 2014-10-08 | 410 | R+7.0 | 8 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2014-09-29 | 535 | R+10.0 | 5 |