Actual result
D+9.1
Final polls said
D+10.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+14.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siena College | D+10.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+14.4 | 5.3 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College | 2014-10-18 | 628 | D+10.0 | 1 |
| Siena College | 2014-09-12 | 596 | D+18.0 | 9 |