Actual result
R+36.8
Final polls said
R+25.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+28.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Jones & Associates | R+32.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+28.5 | 8.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Brigham Young University Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy | R+18.0 | 18.8 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Jones & Associates | 2014-10-22 | 201 | R+32.0 | 5 |
| Brigham Young University Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy | 2014-10-19 | 159 | R+18.0 | 19 |