Actual result
R+5.1
Final polls said
R+0.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+6.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Jones & Associates | R+5.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+6.7 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | FM3 Research | R+3.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Brigham Young University Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy | D+4.0 | 9.1 | ✗ |
| 5 | Y2 Analytics | R+19.0 | 13.9 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Jones & Associates | 2014-10-24 | 402 | R+5.0 | 0 |
| Brigham Young University Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy | 2014-10-19 | 236 | D+4.0 | 9 |
| Dan Jones & Associates | 2014-10-08 | 400 | R+9.0 | 4 |
| FM3 Research | 2014-10-06 | 403 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| Y2 Analytics | 2014-10-01 | 500 | R+19.0 | 14 |