Actual result
D+42.1
Final polls said
D+43.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+46.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+46.9 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Ward Research | D+51.0 | 8.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | D+52.0 | 9.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Rasmussen Reports | D+32.0 | 10.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | MRG Research | D+26.0 | 16.1 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 1002 | D+52.0 | 10 |
| MRG Research | 2014-10-18 | 1221 | D+26.0 | 16 |
| Ward Research | 2014-10-15 | 605 | D+51.0 | 9 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 1319 | D+54.0 | 12 |
| MRG Research | 2014-09-13 | 1055 | D+37.0 | 5 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-09-09 | 750 | D+32.0 | 10 |