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Toss-up · 2014 Senate
Hawaii Senate
In the 2014 Hawaii Senate race, Brian Schatz (D) won by about 42 points.
Actual result
D+42.1
Final polls said
D+43.0
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ward Research | D+51.0 | 8.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | D+52.0 | 9.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Rasmussen Reports | D+32.0 | 10.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | MRG Research | D+26.0 | 16.1 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
YouGov2014-10-2010
MRG Research2014-10-1816
Ward Research2014-10-159
YouGov2014-09-2612
MRG Research2014-09-135
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2014 Hawaii Senate race?
Brian Schatz (D) won, by about 42.1 points (D+42.1).
When was the 2014 Hawaii Senate election held?
It was held in November 2014.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.