Actual result
D+41.3
Final polls said
D+45.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+45.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | D+45.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+45.2 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Rasmussen Reports | D+35.0 | 6.3 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 866 | D+45.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 724 | D+42.0 | 1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-09-24 | 750 | D+35.0 | 6 |