Rhode Island Governor
Helena Foulkes (D) is the clear favorite to win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor race — about a 86% chance, winning by about 17 points in the projection. Updated daily from 1 poll.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 1 poll of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+17.4 — a 86% Democratic win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.
Latest news
Is Helena Foulkes running for governor of Rhode Island again?The former CVS executive who finished second against Governor Dan McKee in the Democratic primary in 2022 says she hasn’t made up her mind about running for Rhode Island governor in 2026, but she sure seems to be comfortable with asking her supporters for cam…
The Boston Globe · April 30, 2024- Defeated Rhode Island GOP candidate for governor endorses Democratic incumbent (golly gee, what a shock!)
McKee ascended to the governorship last year after his predecessor, Gov. Gina Raimondo, vacated the post to head the Commerce Department for the Biden administration. He had served as lieutenant governor at the time. He narrowly evaded a primary defeat agains…
Freerepublic.com · September 24, 2022 
Bonus Quote of the Day“Oh, that’s not gonna happen. That’s not gonna happen. Hang up on them.” — Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee (D) declining a concession call from Helena Foulkes (D).
Politicalwire.com · September 14, 2022
The Election Recap: Sept. 12, 2022Welcome back to The Election Recap, your weekly, one-stop shop for the last seven days of midterms news. Before diving in today, I'd like to first invite you to share your feedback on this newsletter via a brief, anonymous survey. I know you have a lot of cho…
The Week Magazine · September 12, 2022
RI governor candidate Helena Foulkes uses CVS, business experience - The Providence JournalHelena Foulkes is touting her corporate chops in a come-from-behind race for Rhode Island governor.
The Providence Journal · August 25, 2022
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Rhode Island Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Helena Foulkes (D), with roughly a 86% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+17.4.
What do the polls say in the Rhode Island Governor race?
There is 1 poll of this race. The most recent, from Opinion Diagnostics (2026-04-16), showed D+17.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+17.4.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Rhode Island Governor race?
Helena Foulkes is the Democratic candidate; Aaron Guckian is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Rhode Island Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Rhode Island Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.