Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 2 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+17.4 — a 87% Democratic win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.
Forecast over time
The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.
Latest news
Is Helena Foulkes running for governor of Rhode Island again?The former CVS executive who finished second against Governor Dan McKee in the Democratic primary in 2022 says she hasn’t made up her mind about running for Rhode Island governor in 2026, but she sure seems to be comfortable with asking her supporters for cam…
The Boston Globe · April 30, 2024- Defeated Rhode Island GOP candidate for governor endorses Democratic incumbent (golly gee, what a shock!)
McKee ascended to the governorship last year after his predecessor, Gov. Gina Raimondo, vacated the post to head the Commerce Department for the Biden administration. He had served as lieutenant governor at the time. He narrowly evaded a primary defeat agains…
Freerepublic.com · September 24, 2022 
Bonus Quote of the Day“Oh, that’s not gonna happen. That’s not gonna happen. Hang up on them.” — Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee (D) declining a concession call from Helena Foulkes (D).
Politicalwire.com · September 14, 2022
The Election Recap: Sept. 12, 2022Welcome back to The Election Recap, your weekly, one-stop shop for the last seven days of midterms news. Before diving in today, I'd like to first invite you to share your feedback on this newsletter via a brief, anonymous survey. I know you have a lot of cho…
The Week Magazine · September 12, 2022
RI governor candidate Helena Foulkes uses CVS, business experience - The Providence JournalHelena Foulkes is touting her corporate chops in a come-from-behind race for Rhode Island governor.
The Providence Journal · August 25, 2022
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire[25] | 2026-06-23 | 664 | D+16.0 |
| Opinion Diagnostics[50][B] | 2026-04-16 | 802 | D+17.0 |