Rhode Island Senate
Jack Reed (D) is all but certain to win the 2026 Rhode Island Senate race — about a 99% chance, winning by about 21 points in the projection, and the lead has grown lately. Updated daily from 3 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 3 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+21.2 — a 100% Democratic win.
Latest news
Veteran Dem senator cruises past far-left primary challengers in bid for sixth termSen. Jack Reed, D-R.I., defeated two far-left challengers in the Rhode Island U.S. Senate primary Wednesday, advancing to the November general election in his bid for a sixth term.
Fox News · September 10, 2026
‘Pentagon right now is, in some cases, rudderless’: Army Secretary Dan Driscoll steps down after just 18 monthsRhode Island Senator and former Army officer Jack Reed said Secretary Hegseth is "cultivating a culture where dissent is punished."
Fortune · September 1, 2026
Under pressure from Trump on war powers, Republicans fold and try to appease White HouseOn Tuesday, Congress did something it had never done before: It approved a war powers resolution that rebuked Donald Trump and called on the president to end the war in Iran. It was a largely symbolic move — the measure had no formal force of law — but as Dem…
Biztoc.com · June 25, 2026
Trump wants Sen. Jack Reed to be impeached, which is foolish for all sorts of reasonsAs much of the world started to come to terms with the purported framework to end the U.S. war in Iran, Sen. Jack Reed, the top Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, appeared on “Fox News Sunday” and made clear that he was unimpressed. Indeed, the …
Biztoc.com · June 16, 2026- Trump calls for Senator Reed’s impeachment over criticism of Iran dea
President Trump lashed out at Rhode Island U.S. Sen. Jack Reed on social media Sunday, hours after Reed criticized the president’s handling of Iran during a national TV interview. Reed, the top Democrat on the Armed Services Committee, reiterated his longstan…
Freerepublic.com · June 16, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Rhode Island Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Jack Reed (D), with roughly a 99% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+21.2.
What do the polls say in the Rhode Island Senate race?
There are 3 polls of this race. The most recent, from University of New Hampshire (2026-09-21), showed D+20.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+21.2.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Rhode Island Senate race?
Jack Reed is the Democratic candidate; Raymond McKay is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Rhode Island Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Rhode Island Senate forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, Jack Reed's (D) lead has widened to 99%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Rhode Island Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.