VotePredictor
all races

Rhode Island Senate

Jack Reed (D) vs Raymond McKay (R)

Forecast — win probability
Jack Reed (D)
87%
(R) Raymond McKay
13%
Likely D · model margin D+17.9

Why this forecast

This forecast is poll-driven: 1 poll of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+17.9 — a 87% Democratic win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.

Forecast over time

The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.

0255075100MayJunJul13% R87% D
Democrats 87% Republicans 13%

Latest news

Jack Reed (D)

Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.

Polls (1)

PollsterDatenPoll
University of New Hampshire2026-04-20556D+18.0