Actual result
D+12.2
Final polls said
D+15.6
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+10.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Market Research Insight | D+12.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Impact Research | D+12.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | D+12.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+10.5 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Triumph Campaigns | D+8.0 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | RRH Elections | D+6.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | MarblePort | D+6.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 8 | Multi-Quest International | D+19.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 9 | University of New Orleans Survey Research Center | D+20.0 | 7.8 | ✓ |
| 10 | JMC Analytics | D+4.0 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 11 | Clarus Research Group | D+4.0 | 8.2 | ✓ |
Polls (17)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JMC Analytics | 2015-11-19 | 614 | D+4.0 | 8 |
| Market Research Insight | 2015-11-17 | 900 | D+12.0 | 0 |
| Market Research Insight | 2015-11-15 | 500 | D+15.0 | 3 |
| JMC Analytics | 2015-11-15 | 635 | D+16.0 | 4 |
| RRH Elections | 2015-11-14 | 359 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| University of New Orleans Survey Research Center | 2015-11-14 | 578 | D+20.0 | 8 |
| Market Research Insight | 2015-11-13 | 600 | D+15.0 | 3 |
| MarblePort | 2015-11-11 | 978 | D+6.0 | 6 |
| Market Research Insight | 2015-11-09 | 600 | D+14.0 | 2 |
| University of New Orleans Survey Research Center | 2015-11-05 | 600 | D+22.0 | 10 |
| Triumph Campaigns | 2015-11-05 | 1818 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| JMC Analytics | 2015-10-30 | 600 | D+20.0 | 8 |
| Impact Research | 2015-10-27 | 700 | D+12.0 | 0 |
| Market Research Insight | 2015-10-27 | 600 | D+16.0 | 4 |
| Multi-Quest International | 2015-10-10 | 400 | D+19.0 | 7 |
| Clarus Research Group | 2015-09-22 | 800 | D+4.0 | 8 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2015-09-21 | 616 | D+12.0 | 0 |