Actual result
D+19.1
Final polls said
D+20.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+20.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+20.1 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyMonkey | D+16.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of Delaware Center for Political Communication | D+32.0 | 12.9 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 367 | D+16.0 | 3 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 458 | D+24.0 | 5 |
| University of Delaware Center for Political Communication | 2016-09-22 | 900 | D+32.0 | 13 |