Actual result
R+38.0
Final polls said
R+31.2
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+33.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Y2 Analytics | R+38.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Dan Jones & Associates | R+39.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+33.7 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+33.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyMonkey | R+20.0 | 18.0 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 1479 | R+20.0 | 18 |
| Y2 Analytics | 2016-11-02 | 500 | R+38.0 | 0 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-11-01 | 402 | R+33.0 | 5 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 1078 | R+26.0 | 12 |
| Dan Jones & Associates | 2016-10-15 | 818 | R+39.0 | 1 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2016-10-11 | 403 | R+33.0 | 5 |