Actual result
R+8.7
Final polls said
R+4.3
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+5.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RRH Elections | R+7.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Braun Research | R+7.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+5.8 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Castleton Polling Institute | R+1.0 | 7.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyMonkey | D+4.0 | 12.7 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 454 | D+4.0 | 13 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 436 | R+7.0 | 2 |
| RRH Elections | 2016-10-25 | 1052 | R+7.0 | 2 |
| Braun Research | 2016-10-21 | 603 | R+7.0 | 2 |
| The Castleton Polling Institute | 2016-10-07 | 579 | R+1.0 | 8 |