Actual result
D+6.8
Final polls said
R+5.0
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+1.5
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Global Strategy Group | D+10.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Repass | D+11.0 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Just Win Strategies | D+2.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+13.0 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | R+1.5 | 8.3 | ✗ |
| 6 | SurveyMonkey | R+9.0 | 15.8 | ✗ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 472 | R+9.0 | 16 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 321 | R+1.0 | 8 |
| Repass | 2016-10-14 | 408 | D+11.0 | 4 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2016-10-14 | 601 | D+10.0 | 3 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2016-09-15 | 500 | D+13.0 | 6 |
| Just Win Strategies | 2016-09-09 | 600 | D+2.0 | 5 |