Actual result
R+14.3
Final polls said
R+2.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+9.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alaska Survey Research | R+15.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+9.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | R+2.0 | 12.3 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 2016-10-17 | 348 | R+2.0 | 12 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2016-09-30 | 660 | R+15.0 | 1 |