Actual result
R+3.4
Final polls said
D+3.0
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+1.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+1.6 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Clarity Campaign Labs | D+1.0 | 4.4 | ✗ |
| 3 | Impact Research | D+5.0 | 8.4 | ✗ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research | 2016-10-14 | 500 | D+5.0 | 8 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 2016-10-12 | 837 | D+1.0 | 4 |