Actual result
R+13.7
Final polls said
R+1.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+6.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+6.0 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+2.0 | 11.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Normington, Petts & Associates | R+2.0 | 11.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Global Strategy Group | R+2.0 | 11.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | EVEN | 13.7 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2016-11-02 | 310 | R+2.0 | 12 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2016-10-17 | 400 | EVEN | 14 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2016-10-12 | 400 | R+2.0 | 12 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2016-10-01 | 400 | R+2.0 | 12 |