Actual result
D+15.5
Final polls said
D+14.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+14.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+14.1 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | D+17.8 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyMonkey | D+12.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Emerson College | D+20.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | New York Times | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 95% | 0.003 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 415 | D+12.0 | 4 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 419 | D+13.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2016-10-20 | 287 | D+17.8 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2016-10-03 | 600 | D+20.0 | 4 |