Actual result
R+28.1
Final polls said
R+21.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+25.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+25.9 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyMonkey | R+19.0 | 9.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 1131 | R+19.0 | 9 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 485 | R+24.0 | 4 |