Actual result
R+23.6
Final polls said
R+15.2
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+19.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+19.9 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Hendrix College | R+18.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of Arkansas Department of Political Science | R+17.8 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyMonkey | R+15.0 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Emerson College | R+14.0 | 9.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-11-04 | 930 | R+15.0 | 9 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2016-10-28 | 484 | R+10.0 | 14 |
| University of Arkansas Department of Political Science | 2016-10-22 | 585 | R+17.8 | 6 |
| Hendrix College | 2016-10-21 | 463 | R+18.0 | 6 |
| Hendrix College | 2016-09-16 | 831 | R+26.0 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2016-09-11 | 600 | R+14.0 | 10 |