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Toss-up · 2016 Senate
Arkansas Senate
In the 2016 Arkansas Senate race, John Boozman (R) won by about 24 points.
Actual result
R+23.6
Final polls said
R+15.2
4 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hendrix College | R+18.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of Arkansas Department of Political Science | R+17.8 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyMonkey | R+15.0 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Emerson College | R+14.0 | 9.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2016-11-049
SurveyMonkey2016-10-2814
University of Arkansas Department of Political Science2016-10-226
Hendrix College2016-10-216
Hendrix College2016-09-162
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Arkansas Senate race?
John Boozman (R) won, by about 23.6 points (R+23.6).
When was the 2016 Arkansas Senate election held?
It was held in November 2016.