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Toss-up · 2016 Senate
Arkansas Senate
In the 2016 Arkansas Senate race, John Boozman (R) won by about 24 points.
Actual result
R+23.6
Final polls said
R+15.2
4 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hendrix College | R+18.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of Arkansas Department of Political Science | R+17.8 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyMonkey | R+15.0 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Emerson College | R+14.0 | 9.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2016-11-049
SurveyMonkey2016-10-2814
University of Arkansas Department of Political Science2016-10-226
Hendrix College2016-10-216
Hendrix College2016-09-162
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Arkansas Senate race?
John Boozman (R) won, by about 23.6 points (R+23.6).
When was the 2016 Arkansas Senate election held?
It was held in November 2016.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.