Actual result
R+3.6
Final polls said
EVEN
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+3.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+3.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Trafalgar Group | R+1.9 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | EVEN | 3.6 | ✗ |
| 4 | Landmark Communications | D+0.1 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 5 | InsiderAdvantage | D+0.3 | 3.9 | ✗ |
| 6 | Impact Research | D+1.0 | 4.6 | ✗ |
| 7 | Gravis Marketing | D+2.0 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 8 | GBAO | D+2.0 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 9 | Abt Associates | D+7.0 | 10.6 | ✗ |
Polls (14)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landmark Communications | 2017-06-19 | 500 | D+0.1 | 4 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2017-06-17 | 1100 | R+1.9 | 2 |
| Landmark Communications | 2017-06-15 | 800 | D+1.7 | 5 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2017-06-14 | 537 | D+0.3 | 4 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2017-06-12 | 1100 | D+2.8 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2017-06-09 | 503 | EVEN | 4 |
| Abt Associates | 2017-06-07 | 745 | D+7.0 | 11 |
| Landmark Communications | 2017-06-06 | 420 | D+2.5 | 6 |
| Landmark Communications | 2017-05-30 | 500 | D+1.5 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2017-05-18 | 549 | D+7.0 | 11 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2017-05-09 | 870 | D+2.0 | 6 |
| Landmark Communications | 2017-05-03 | 611 | R+2.6 | 1 |
| GBAO | 2017-04-30 | 400 | D+2.0 | 6 |
| Impact Research | 2017-04-25 | 590 | D+1.0 | 5 |