Actual result
R+5.6
Final polls said
R+9.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+16.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | R+6.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Change Research | R+5.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Gravis Marketing | R+14.0 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Emerson College | R+15.0 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | R+16.7 | 11.1 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | 2017-05-22 | 818 | R+14.0 | 8 |
| Change Research | 2017-05-22 | 1888 | R+5.0 | 1 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2017-05-03 | 462 | R+8.0 | 2 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2017-04-26 | 601 | R+6.0 | 0 |
| Emerson College | 2017-04-20 | 648 | R+15.0 | 9 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2017-04-03 | 1222 | R+12.0 | 6 |