Actual result
D+1.6
Final polls said
R+9.8
4 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+7.2
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | InsiderAdvantage | D+2.3 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government | D+3.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+0.3 | 1.9 | ✗ |
| 4 | The Polling Company Inc./National Research Inc. | R+1.0 | 2.6 | ✗ |
| 5 | SurveyMonkey | D+5.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Gravis Marketing | R+4.0 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 7 | JMC Analytics | R+5.0 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 8 | Trafalgar Group | R+5.1 | 6.7 | ✗ |
| 9 | WT&S Consulting | R+5.9 | 7.5 | ✗ |
| 10 | Change Research | R+6.0 | 7.6 | ✗ |
| 11 | YouGov | R+6.0 | 7.6 | ✗ |
| 12 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | D+10.0 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 13 | Strategy Research | R+7.0 | 8.6 | ✗ |
| 14 | Sky Research | R+7.1 | 8.7 | ✗ |
| 15 | VotePredictor | R+7.2 | 8.9 | ✗ |
| 16 | NRSC | D+12.0 | 10.4 | ✓ |
| 17 | Emerson College | R+9.0 | 10.6 | ✗ |
| 18 | Axis Research | R+17.0 | 18.6 | ✗ |
Polls (36)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2017-12-10 | 1556 | R+6.0 | 8 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2017-12-09 | 1127 | D+10.0 | 8 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2017-12-08 | 546 | R+0.3 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2017-12-08 | 600 | R+9.0 | 11 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2017-12-07 | 1254 | R+4.0 | 6 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2017-12-06 | 1419 | R+5.1 | 7 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2017-12-06 | 2131 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| Change Research | 2017-12-06 | 2443 | R+7.0 | 9 |
| Strategy Research | 2017-12-04 | 3200 | R+7.0 | 9 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2017-12-02 | 1276 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2017-12-01 | 500 | R+3.0 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2017-11-30 | 766 | R+6.0 | 8 |
| The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government | 2017-11-29 | 739 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| The Polling Company Inc./National Research Inc. | 2017-11-27 | 600 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| JMC Analytics | 2017-11-27 | 650 | R+5.0 | 7 |
| Emerson College | 2017-11-26 | 500 | R+6.0 | 8 |
| Change Research | 2017-11-26 | 1868 | R+5.0 | 7 |
| Sky Research | 2017-11-21 | 1059 | R+7.1 | 9 |
| Strategy Research | 2017-11-20 | 3000 | R+2.0 | 4 |
| WT&S Consulting | 2017-11-19 | 11641 | R+5.9 | 8 |
| The Polling Company Inc./National Research Inc. | 2017-11-15 | 600 | D+8.0 | 6 |
| Change Research | 2017-11-15 | 679 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2017-11-14 | 628 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| Strategy Research | 2017-11-13 | 3000 | R+6.0 | 8 |
| NRSC | 2017-11-12 | 500 | D+12.0 | 10 |
| WT&S Consulting | 2017-11-11 | 1536 | R+10.2 | 12 |
| Change Research | 2017-11-10 | 679 | R+4.0 | 6 |
| JMC Analytics | 2017-11-10 | 575 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2017-11-10 | 600 | R+10.0 | 12 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2017-11-10 | 478 | R+2.0 | 4 |
| WT&S Consulting | 2017-11-09 | 1354 | R+10.8 | 12 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2017-11-09 | 515 | D+2.3 | 1 |
| Axis Research | 2017-10-25 | 503 | R+17.0 | 19 |
| Strategy Research | 2017-10-19 | 3000 | R+11.0 | 13 |
| Strategy Research | 2017-10-16 | 3000 | R+11.0 | 13 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2017-10-15 | 679 | EVEN | 2 |