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Toss-up · 2018 Governor
Arkansas Governor
In the 2018 Arkansas Governor race, Asa Hutchinson (R) won by about 34 points.
Actual result
R+33.6
Final polls said
R+30.0
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hendrix College | R+36.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of Arkansas Department of Political Science | R+24.0 | 9.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Hendrix College2018-10-182
University of Arkansas Department of Political Science2018-10-1510
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Arkansas Governor race?
Asa Hutchinson (R) won, by about 33.6 points (R+33.6).
When was the 2018 Arkansas Governor election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.