Actual result
R+33.6
Final polls said
R+30.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+37.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hendrix College | R+36.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+37.5 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of Arkansas Department of Political Science | R+24.0 | 9.6 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hendrix College | 2018-10-18 | 528 | R+36.0 | 2 |
| University of Arkansas Department of Political Science | 2018-10-15 | 618 | R+24.0 | 10 |