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Toss-up · 2018 House
Kansas House
In the 2018 Kansas House race, Roger Marshall (R) won by about 36 points.
Actual result
R+36.3
Final polls said
R+9.4
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Remington Research Group | R+34.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | R+14.9 | 21.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Jayhawk Consulting Services | R+4.0 | 32.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 93% | 0.004 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Emerson College2018-10-2721
Jayhawk Consulting Services2018-10-2232
Remington Research Group2018-10-082
Emerson College2018-09-2710
Jayhawk Consulting Services2018-09-2125
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Kansas House race?
Roger Marshall (R) won, by about 36.3 points (R+36.3).
When was the 2018 Kansas House election held?
It was held in November 2018.