Actual result
R+36.3
Final polls said
R+9.4
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+21.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Remington Research Group | R+34.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+21.8 | 14.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Emerson College | R+14.9 | 21.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Jayhawk Consulting Services | R+4.0 | 32.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 93% | 0.004 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | 2018-10-27 | 221 | R+14.9 | 21 |
| Jayhawk Consulting Services | 2018-10-22 | 600 | R+4.0 | 32 |
| Remington Research Group | 2018-10-08 | 1432 | R+34.0 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2018-09-27 | 193 | R+26.6 | 10 |
| Jayhawk Consulting Services | 2018-09-21 | 400 | R+11.0 | 25 |