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Toss-up · 2018 House
Kansas House
In the 2018 Kansas House race, Roger Marshall (R) won by about 36 points.
Actual result
R+36.3
Final polls said
R+9.4
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Remington Research Group | R+34.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | R+14.9 | 21.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Jayhawk Consulting Services | R+4.0 | 32.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 93% | 0.004 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Emerson College2018-10-2721
Jayhawk Consulting Services2018-10-2232
Remington Research Group2018-10-082
Emerson College2018-09-2710
Jayhawk Consulting Services2018-09-2125
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Kansas House race?
Roger Marshall (R) won, by about 36.3 points (R+36.3).
When was the 2018 Kansas House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.