Actual result
D+9.7
Final polls said
D+10.9
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+4.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+9.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | D+12.8 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+4.9 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Remington Research Group | R+3.0 | 12.7 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | Dem 87% | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 83% | 0.028 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 71% | 0.083 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | 2018-10-27 | 262 | D+12.8 | 3 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-10-16 | 503 | D+9.0 | 1 |
| Emerson College | 2018-09-27 | 246 | D+6.6 | 3 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2018-09-22 | 494 | D+7.6 | 2 |
| Remington Research Group | 2018-09-19 | 610 | R+3.0 | 13 |