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Toss-up · 2018 House
Kansas House
In the 2018 Kansas House race, Sharice Davids (D) won by about 10 points.
Actual result
D+9.7
Final polls said
D+10.9
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+9.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | D+12.8 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Remington Research Group | R+3.0 | 12.7 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 88% | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 83% | 0.028 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 71% | 0.083 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Emerson College2018-10-273
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-161
Emerson College2018-09-273
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-222
Remington Research Group2018-09-1913
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Kansas House race?
Sharice Davids (D) won, by about 9.7 points (D+9.7).
When was the 2018 Kansas House election held?
It was held in November 2018.