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Toss-up · 2018 House
Kansas House
In the 2018 Kansas House race, Sharice Davids (D) won by about 10 points.
Actual result
D+9.7
Final polls said
D+10.9
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+9.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | D+12.8 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Remington Research Group | R+3.0 | 12.7 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 88% | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 86% | 0.020 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Dem 83% | 0.028 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 71% | 0.083 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Emerson College2018-10-273
The New York Times/Siena College2018-10-161
Emerson College2018-09-273
The New York Times/Siena College2018-09-222
Remington Research Group2018-09-1913
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Kansas House race?
Sharice Davids (D) won, by about 9.7 points (D+9.7).
When was the 2018 Kansas House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.