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Toss-up · 2018 House
Kansas House
In the 2018 Kansas House race, Ron Estes (R) won by about 19 points.
Actual result
R+18.9
Final polls said
R+29.8
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | R+29.8 | 10.9 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Emerson College2018-10-2711
Emerson College2018-09-275
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Kansas House race?
Ron Estes (R) won, by about 18.9 points (R+18.9).
When was the 2018 Kansas House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.