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Toss-up · 2018 House
Oregon House
In the 2018 Oregon House race, Greg Walden (R) won by about 17 points.
Actual result
R+16.9
Final polls said
R+9.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patinkin Research Strategies | R+9.0 | 7.9 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 91% | 0.007 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Patinkin Research Strategies2018-10-118
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Oregon House race?
Greg Walden (R) won, by about 16.9 points (R+16.9).
When was the 2018 Oregon House election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.