← all past elections
Toss-up · 2018 Senate
Mississippi Senate
In the 2018 Mississippi Senate race, Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) won by about 19 points.
Actual result
R+19.0
Final polls said
R+16.0
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyMonkey | R+14.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Marist College | R+26.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | JMC Analytics/Bold Blue Campaigns | R+10.0 | 9.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Change Research | R+5.0 | 14.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2018-11-252
JMC Analytics/Bold Blue Campaigns2018-11-213
Change Research2018-11-0311
Marist College2018-10-157
Marist College2018-10-157
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Mississippi Senate race?
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) won, by about 19.0 points (R+19.0).
When was the 2018 Mississippi Senate election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.