Actual result
R+13.1
Final polls said
R+16.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+17.2
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyMonkey | R+14.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | JMC Analytics/Bold Blue Campaigns | R+10.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+17.2 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Change Research | R+5.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Marist College | R+26.0 | 12.9 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2018-11-25 | 1211 | R+5.0 | 2 |
| JMC Analytics/Bold Blue Campaigns | 2018-11-21 | 684 | R+10.0 | 3 |
| Change Research | 2018-11-03 | 1003 | R+8.0 | 11 |
| Marist College | 2018-10-15 | 511 | R+26.0 | 7 |
| Marist College | 2018-10-15 | 511 | R+14.0 | 7 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2018-09-17 | 985 | R+14.0 | 5 |