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Toss-up · 2018 Senate
Virginia Senate
In the 2018 Virginia Senate race, Tim Kaine (D) won by about 16 points.
Actual result
D+16.0
Final polls said
D+16.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SSRS | D+16.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SSRS2018-09-060
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Virginia Senate race?
Tim Kaine (D) won, by about 16.0 points (D+16.0).
When was the 2018 Virginia Senate election held?
It was held in November 2018.