← all past elections
Toss-up · 2018 Senate
Virginia Senate
In the 2018 Virginia Senate race, Tim Kaine (D) won by about 16 points.
Actual result
D+16.0
Final polls said
D+16.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SSRS | D+16.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SSRS2018-09-060
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 Virginia Senate race?
Tim Kaine (D) won, by about 16.0 points (D+16.0).
When was the 2018 Virginia Senate election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.