Virginia 2026 elections
Everything on Virginia's 2026 ballot and in its congressional delegation, in one place: the Senate race, 4 competitive U.S. House districts, and its 2 senators and 11 representatives — each with a daily-updated forecast or voting record.
Statewide races
Competitive House districts (4)
District forecasts are fundamentals-based (no district polls yet) — presidential lean, incumbency, and the national environment. Click one to see why.
VA-1Robert J. Wittman (R) · incumbent · pres lean R+5.2Toss-up53% · D+0.5
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+5.2, held by Robert J. Wittman (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+4.4; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+0.5 — a 53% Democratic win.
VA-7Eugene S. Vindman (D) · incumbent · pres lean D+4.0Toss-up63% · D+2.2
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+4.0, held by Eugene S. Vindman (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+2.7; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+2.2 — a 63% Democratic win.
VA-5John J. McGuire III (R) · incumbent · pres lean R+11.0Lean R67% · R+3.0
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+11.0, held by John J. McGuire III (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+7.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+3.0 — a 67% Republican win.
VA-10Suhas Subramanyam (D) · incumbent · pres lean D+10.5Likely D89% · D+8.3
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+10.5, held by Suhas Subramanyam (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+3.4; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+8.3 — a 89% Democratic win.