Virginia 2026 elections

Everything on Virginia's 2026 ballot and in its congressional delegation, in one place: the Senate race, 3 competitive U.S. House districts, 2 senators and 11 representatives — each with a daily-updated forecast or voting record.

Statewide races

Virginia

Senate

No forecast

Nominee changed — Mizusawa won the primary

Competitive House districts (3)

District forecasts are fundamentals-based — presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment — with district polling blended in where it exists. Click one to see why.

VA-1

Shannon Taylor (D) vs Rob Wittman (R) · pres lean R+5.0

Toss-up

56% · D+0.8

A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+5.0, held by Rob Wittman (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+4.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.8) shifts every district 3.0 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+0.8 — a 56% Democratic win. Full race details →

VA-2

Elaine Luria (D) vs Jen Kiggans (R) · pres lean R+0.2

Toss-up

64% · D+2.2

A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+0.2, held by Jen Kiggans (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+0.6; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.8) shifts every district 3.0 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+2.2 — a 64% Democratic win. Full race details →

VA-5

Tom Perriello (D) vs John McGuire (R) · pres lean R+12.0

Likely R

87% · R+6.9

A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+12.0, held by John McGuire (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+11.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.8) shifts every district 3.0 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+6.9 — a 87% Republican win. Full race details →