Actual result
D+3.3
Final polls said
D+6.2
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+3.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+3.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Polling Company Inc. | D+4.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Tarrance Group | D+4.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Repass | D+5.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Opinion Strategies | D+1.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | Emerson College | D+5.8 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | Vox Populi Polling | D+6.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 8 | 1892 Polling | EVEN | 3.3 | ✗ |
| 9 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | R+2.0 | 5.3 | ✗ |
| 10 | Global Strategy Group | D+12.0 | 8.7 | ✓ |
| 11 | Strategic Research Associates | D+16.0 | 12.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 87% | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | Dem 85% | 0.023 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 68% | 0.100 | ✓ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 68% | 0.102 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
Polls (12)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | 2018-10-30 | 1013 | D+5.8 | 2 |
| Repass | 2018-10-25 | 400 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | 2018-10-17 | 600 | R+2.0 | 5 |
| Strategic Research Associates | 2018-10-16 | 650 | D+16.0 | 13 |
| Vox Populi Polling | 2018-10-14 | 789 | D+6.0 | 3 |
| The Polling Company Inc. | 2018-10-12 | 600 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2018-10-08 | 600 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Tarrance Group | 2018-09-24 | 612 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| 1892 Polling | 2018-09-24 | 500 | EVEN | 3 |
| Strategic Research Associates | 2018-09-21 | 650 | D+8.0 | 5 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2018-09-21 | 601 | D+12.0 | 9 |
| Emerson College | 2018-09-14 | 825 | D+11.7 | 8 |