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Toss-up · 2018 Senate
West Virginia Senate
In the 2018 West Virginia Senate race, Joe Manchin, III (D) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
D+3.3
Final polls said
D+6.2
4 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Polling Company Inc. | D+4.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Tarrance Group | D+4.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Repass | D+5.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Opinion Strategies | D+1.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | Emerson College | D+5.8 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Vox Populi Polling | D+6.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 7 | 1892 Polling | EVEN | 3.3 | ✗ |
| 8 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | R+2.0 | 5.3 | ✗ |
| 9 | Global Strategy Group | D+12.0 | 8.7 | ✓ |
| 10 | Strategic Research Associates | D+16.0 | 12.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 87% | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 87% | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 68% | 0.100 | ✓ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 68% | 0.102 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Dem 60% | 0.160 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
12 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Emerson College2018-10-302
Repass2018-10-252
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates2018-10-175
Strategic Research Associates2018-10-1613
Vox Populi Polling2018-10-143
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 West Virginia Senate race?
Joe Manchin, III (D) won, by about 3.3 points (D+3.3).
When was the 2018 West Virginia Senate election held?
It was held in November 2018.