Toss-up · 2018 Senate

West Virginia Senate

In the 2018 West Virginia Senate race, Joe Manchin, III (D) won by about 3 points.

Actual result

D+3.3

Final polls said

D+6.2

4 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	The Polling Company Inc.	D+4.0	0.7	✓
2	Tarrance Group	D+4.0	0.7	✓
3	Repass	D+5.0	1.7	✓
4	Public Opinion Strategies	D+1.0	2.3	✓
5	Emerson College	D+5.8	2.5	✓
6	Vox Populi Polling	D+6.0	2.7	✓
7	1892 Polling	EVEN	3.3	✗
8	Fabrizio, Lee & Associates	R+2.0	5.3	✗
9	Global Strategy Group	D+12.0	8.7	✓
10	Strategic Research Associates	D+16.0	12.7	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 87%	0.017	✓
2	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 87%	0.018	✓
3	Cook Political	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
4	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
5	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 68%	0.100	✓
6	JHK Forecasts	Dem 68%	0.102	✓
7	Inside Elections	Dem 60%	0.160	✓