Actual result
R+5.1
Final polls said
R+1.8
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+3.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyMonkey | R+7.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+3.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+3.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Targoz Market Research | R+1.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Hickman Analytics | D+4.0 | 9.1 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2019-10-18 | 625 | R+3.0 | 2 |
| Targoz Market Research | 2019-10-17 | 384 | R+1.0 | 4 |
| Hickman Analytics | 2019-10-15 | 508 | D+4.0 | 9 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2019-10-15 | 1002 | R+7.0 | 2 |
| Hickman Analytics | 2019-09-24 | 500 | D+3.0 | 8 |