Actual result
D+1.5
Final polls said
D+0.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+3.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Nuevo Día/The Research Office | D+1.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gaither International | D+3.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+3.5 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Data for Progress | D+4.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Beacon Research | D+5.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Jorge Benítez | R+3.0 | 4.5 | ✗ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Nuevo Día/The Research Office | 2020-10-29 | 1000 | D+1.0 | 0 |
| Jorge Benítez | 2020-10-27 | 1010 | R+3.0 | 4 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-23 | 439 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| Beacon Research | 2020-10-14 | 809 | D+5.0 | 4 |
| Jorge Benítez | 2020-10-14 | 676 | R+3.5 | 5 |
| Beacon Research | 2020-10-03 | 1200 | D+7.0 | 6 |
| El Nuevo Día/The Research Office | 2020-09-21 | 1000 | D+1.0 | 0 |
| Gaither International | 2020-09-19 | 2041 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Beacon Research | 2020-09-16 | 803 | D+2.0 | 1 |