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Toss-up · 2020 House
Kansas House
In the 2020 Kansas House race, Jake LaTurner (R) won by about 15 points.
Actual result
R+14.5
Final polls said
R+11.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VCreek/AMG | R+11.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 94% | 0.004 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 88% | 0.014 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 86% | 0.018 | ✓ |
| 7 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 85% | 0.023 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
VCreek/AMG2020-09-294
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Kansas House race?
Jake LaTurner (R) won, by about 14.5 points (R+14.5).
When was the 2020 Kansas House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.