Actual result
D+9.0
Final polls said
D+9.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+17.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Nuevo Día/The Research Office | D+12.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Data for Progress | D+12.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Jorge Benítez | D+4.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+17.0 | 8.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Beacon Research | D+18.0 | 9.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | Gaither International | D+28.0 | 19.0 | ✓ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Nuevo Día/The Research Office | 2020-10-29 | 1000 | D+12.0 | 3 |
| Jorge Benítez | 2020-10-27 | 1010 | D+4.0 | 5 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-23 | 439 | D+12.0 | 3 |
| Beacon Research | 2020-10-14 | 809 | D+18.0 | 9 |
| Jorge Benítez | 2020-10-14 | 676 | D+3.0 | 6 |
| Beacon Research | 2020-10-03 | 1200 | D+25.0 | 16 |
| El Nuevo Día/The Research Office | 2020-09-21 | 1000 | D+10.0 | 1 |
| Gaither International | 2020-09-19 | 2041 | D+28.0 | 19 |
| Beacon Research | 2020-09-16 | 803 | D+33.0 | 24 |