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Toss-up · 2020 President
Arkansas President
In the 2020 Arkansas President race, Donald Trump (R) won by about 28 points.
Actual result
R+27.6
Final polls said
R+28.0
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hendrix College | R+24.5 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyMonkey | R+23.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of Arkansas Department of Political Science | R+33.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Race to the WH | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 13 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
4 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
SurveyMonkey2020-10-265
University of Arkansas Department of Political Science2020-10-155
Hendrix College2020-10-123
SurveyMonkey2020-10-0610
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Arkansas President race?
Donald Trump (R) won, by about 27.6 points (R+27.6).
When was the 2020 Arkansas President election held?
It was held in November 2020.