Actual result
D+7.3
Final polls said
D+10.8
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+10.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+7.8 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+8.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Saint Anselm College Survey Center | D+8.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyMonkey | D+9.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | D+10.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | Suffolk University | D+10.2 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | D+10.6 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 8 | The New York Times/Siena College | D+3.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 9 | Rasmussen Reports | D+14.0 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 10 | American Research Group | D+19.0 | 11.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Race to the WH | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 5 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 6 | CNalysis | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 8 | Inside Elections | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 9 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 10 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 11 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 12 | Elections Daily | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
Polls (15)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Research Group | 2020-10-27 | 600 | D+19.0 | 12 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-26 | 1013 | D+9.0 | 2 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2020-10-26 | 864 | D+8.0 | 1 |
| Saint Anselm College Survey Center | 2020-10-25 | 1018 | D+8.0 | 1 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | 2020-10-21 | 757 | D+10.0 | 3 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2020-10-11 | 899 | D+12.0 | 5 |
| Suffolk University | 2020-10-10 | 500 | D+10.2 | 3 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-05 | 1410 | D+16.0 | 9 |
| Saint Anselm College Survey Center | 2020-10-03 | 1147 | D+12.0 | 5 |
| Emerson College | 2020-09-30 | 700 | D+7.8 | 0 |
| American Research Group | 2020-09-27 | 600 | D+9.0 | 2 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2020-09-26 | 972 | D+9.0 | 2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2020-09-24 | 850 | D+14.0 | 7 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | 2020-09-21 | 657 | D+8.0 | 1 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2020-09-10 | 445 | D+3.0 | 4 |