Toss-up · 2020 President

New Hampshire President

In the 2020 New Hampshire President race, Bernard Sanders (D) won by about 7 points.

Actual result

D+7.3

Final polls said

D+10.8

5 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Emerson College	D+7.8	0.5	✓
2	University of New Hampshire Survey Center	D+8.0	0.7	✓
3	Saint Anselm College Survey Center	D+8.0	0.7	✓
4	SurveyMonkey	D+9.0	1.7	✓
5	University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion	D+10.0	2.7	✓
6	Suffolk University	D+10.2	2.8	✓
7	The New York Times/Siena College	D+3.0	4.3	✓
8	Rasmussen Reports	D+14.0	6.7	✓
9	American Research Group	D+19.0	11.7	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	The Economist	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
2	Race to the WH	Dem 100%	0.000	✓
3	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
4	JHK Forecasts	Dem 97%	0.001	✓
5	Princeton Election Consortium	Dem 93%	0.005	✓
6	CNalysis	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
7	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
8	Inside Elections	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
9	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
10	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 89%	0.012	✓
11	Cook Political	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
12	Elections Daily	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
13	RealClearPolitics	Dem 75%	0.062	✓