Actual result
D+35.4
Final polls said
D+37.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+35.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+35.1 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | co/efficient | D+30.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyMonkey | D+45.0 | 9.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Braun Research | D+23.3 | 12.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Elections Daily | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Race to the WH | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 13 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-26 | 906 | D+45.0 | 10 |
| co/efficient | 2020-10-19 | 584 | D+30.0 | 5 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-06 | 785 | D+35.0 | 0 |
| Braun Research | 2020-09-09 | 586 | D+23.3 | 12 |