Toss-up · 2020 Senate

Alabama Senate

In the 2020 Alabama Senate race, Tommy Tuberville (R) won by about 20 points.

Tommy Tuberville· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

R+20.4

Final polls said

R+12.1

6 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

—

Winner

Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Swayable	R+15.3	5.1	✓
2	Moore Information Group	R+15.0	5.4	✓
3	Cygnal	R+13.6	6.8	✓
4	Morning Consult	R+12.1	8.3	✓
5	Data for Progress	R+12.0	8.4	✓
6	Auburn University at Montgomery Department of Political Science and Public Administration	R+10.9	9.5	✓
7	FM3 Research	D+1.0	21.4	✗

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	CNalysis	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
2	The Economist	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
3	Elections Daily	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
4	Princeton Election Consortium	Rep 99%	0.000	✓
5	VotePredictor Elections	Rep 100%	0.000	✓
6	JHK Forecasts	Rep 96%	0.002	✓
7	Race to the WH	Rep 96%	0.002	✓
8	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
9	RealClearPolitics	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
10	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Rep 90%	0.010	✓
11	FiveThirtyEight	Rep 87%	0.017	✓
12	Cook Political	Rep 75%	0.062	✓
13	Inside Elections	Rep 75%	0.062	✓