Actual result
R+20.4
Final polls said
R+12.1
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+14.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swayable | R+15.3 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Moore Information Group | R+15.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+14.3 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Cygnal | R+13.6 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Morning Consult | R+12.1 | 8.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | Data for Progress | R+12.0 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | Auburn University at Montgomery Department of Political Science and Public Administration | R+10.9 | 9.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | FM3 Research | D+1.0 | 21.4 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 7 | Race to the WH | Rep 96% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 8 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 9 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 10 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 11 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 87% | 0.017 | ✓ |
| 12 | Cook Political | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 13 | Inside Elections | Rep 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
Polls (10)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swayable | 2020-10-29 | 294 | R+15.3 | 5 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-29 | 1045 | R+12.0 | 8 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-26 | 850 | R+12.1 | 8 |
| Swayable | 2020-10-25 | 232 | R+8.8 | 12 |
| Auburn University at Montgomery Department of Political Science and Public Administration | 2020-10-25 | 853 | R+10.9 | 9 |
| Cygnal | 2020-10-22 | 645 | R+13.6 | 7 |
| Moore Information Group | 2020-10-13 | 504 | R+15.0 | 5 |
| FM3 Research | 2020-10-13 | 801 | D+1.0 | 21 |
| Auburn University at Montgomery Department of Political Science and Public Administration | 2020-10-02 | 1072 | R+11.9 | 8 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-09-15 | 658 | R+18.0 | 2 |