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Toss-up · 2020 Senate
Tennessee Senate
In the 2020 Tennessee Senate race, Bill Hagerty (R) won by about 27 points.
Actual result
R+27.0
Final polls said
R+21.0
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swayable | R+21.4 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cygnal | R+20.7 | 6.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | Race to the WH | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Swayable2020-10-276
Cygnal2020-10-216
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Tennessee Senate race?
Bill Hagerty (R) won, by about 27.0 points (R+27.0).
When was the 2020 Tennessee Senate election held?
It was held in November 2020.