Actual result
R+27.0
Final polls said
R+21.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+26.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+26.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Swayable | R+21.4 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cygnal | R+20.7 | 6.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | Race to the WH | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swayable | 2020-10-27 | 431 | R+21.4 | 6 |
| Cygnal | 2020-10-21 | 610 | R+20.7 | 6 |