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Toss-up · 2020 Senate
Tennessee Senate
In the 2020 Tennessee Senate race, Bill Hagerty (R) won by about 27 points.
Actual result
R+27.0
Final polls said
R+21.0
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swayable | R+21.4 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cygnal | R+20.7 | 6.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | Princeton Election Consortium | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | Race to the WH | Rep 98% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Swayable2020-10-276
Cygnal2020-10-216
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Tennessee Senate race?
Bill Hagerty (R) won, by about 27.0 points (R+27.0).
When was the 2020 Tennessee Senate election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.