Tennessee Senate
Bill Hagerty (R) is all but certain to win the 2026 Tennessee Senate race — about a 99% chance, winning by about 28 points in the projection, and the lead has grown lately. Updated daily from 1 poll.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 1 poll of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+27.6 — a 100% Republican win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.
Latest news
What Democrats Should Learn From the Spate of Socialist Wins on Election Day -While many had hoped that Election Day would result in a sweeping rebuke of Trump and Trumpism, neither a pandemic nor an economic recession were enough to deliver an overwhelming rejection. And although it’s looking likely that Biden will eke out a victory, …
In These Times · November 5, 2020- Democrat Marquita Bradshaw Refuses to Concede to Bill Hagerty, Says Shes Not Going Away [TN]
Democrat Marquita Bradshaw officially lost the U.S. Senate race to U.S. Sen.-Elect Bill Hagerty Tuesday by a landslide margin, but she said Tuesday that she refuses to accept the results. Bradshaw also said she wont address Hagerty as her new U.S. senator. B…
Freerepublic.com · November 5, 2020 - More women and more Black women than ever ran for Congress in 2020, but they still lost ground
In 2020, Black women set a new record – 117 entered primaries for the House and 13 for the U.S. Senate, according to the Center for American Women and Politics.In total, 643 women were candidates in congressional primary and general elections, including a rec…
Yahoo Entertainment · November 5, 2020 
Republican Bill Hagerty is next Tennessee U.S. Senator, defeating Democrat Marquita BradshawElection results for Republican Bill Hagerty vs. Democrat Marquita Bradshaw in race to fill vacant U.S. Senate seat in Tennessee.
Tennessean · November 4, 2020
Race to the US Senate remains tight in Kansas - KWCH<ol><li>Race to the US Senate remains tight in Kansas KWCH </li><li>Republican Bill Hagerty is next Tennessee U.S. Senator, defeating Democrat Marquita Bradshaw Tennessean </li><li>'They're like Batman and Robin gone bad': Obama targets Georgia senators i…
KWCH · November 3, 2020
She’s Definitely Not Like Us: Senator Marsha Blackburn Dragged For Cringe Kendrick Lamar AI-Slop VideoGOP Sen. Marsha Blackburn, who is currently running for Governor of Tennessee, is being swamped with well-deserved backlash after she shared AI-generated slop featuring herself as Kendrick Lamar performing his iconic Drake diss, "Not Like Us," flanked by Rep.…
Hip-Hop Wired · Yesterday
'I Could Say Stupidest Things and You'd Clap,' Trump SaysPresident Trump boasted Saturday that he could blurt out nonsense and still get cheers from his supporters—and in Tennessee, he leaned into that hypothesis. Campaigning for Sens. Bill Hagerty and Marsha Blackburn, the president told a packed arena in Clarksvi…
Newser · October 11, 2026
MAGA senator targets Jack Smith with legal sanctions: 'Most serious remedy possible'A Republican senator has filed a formal complaint asking Tennessee's attorney disciplinary board to investigate former special counsel Jack Smith and pursue his disbarment.Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-TN) sent a four-page letter dated Wednesday to R. Culver Schmid, c…
Raw Story · September 30, 2026
Trump caught with mouth 'agape' due to Natalie Harp distraction during gameMore than 100,000 fans at Neyland Stadium were watching Tennessee take on top-ranked Texas on Saturday. Photos from the game show that for at least a few moments, President Donald Trump was looking at his aide Natalie Harp's laptop instead, according to The D…
Raw Story · September 27, 2026
Trump Names New Secretary Of The Army With Zero Military ExperienceWhat could possibly go wrong? As we discussed here, Army Secretary Dan Driscoll recently resigned over clashes with Pete Hegseth and Trump, and now he's been replaced with someone with zero military experience: Trump names Adam Telle as acting army secretary …
Crooksandliars.com · September 5, 2026
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The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Tennessee Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Bill Hagerty (R), with roughly a 99% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+27.6.
What do the polls say in the Tennessee Senate race?
There is 1 poll of this race. The most recent, from Targoz Market Research (2026-08-26), showed R+20.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+27.6.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Tennessee Senate race?
Marquita Bradshaw is the Democratic candidate; Bill Hagerty is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Tennessee Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Tennessee Senate forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, Bill Hagerty's (R) lead has widened to 99%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Tennessee Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.