Tennessee Senate
Bill Hagerty (R) is all but certain to win the 2026 Tennessee Senate race — about a 95% chance, winning by about 27 points in the projection. Updated daily from 1 poll.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 1 poll of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+26.7 — a 95% Republican win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Tennessee Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Bill Hagerty (R), with roughly a 95% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+26.7.
What do the polls say in the Tennessee Senate race?
There is 1 poll of this race. The most recent, from Targoz Market Research[28] (2026-08-26), showed R+20.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+26.7.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Tennessee Senate race?
Marquita Bradshaw is the Democratic candidate; Bill Hagerty is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Tennessee Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Tennessee Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.