Actual result
R+30.0
Final polls said
R+17.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+21.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | R+22.0 | 8.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+21.0 | 9.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Middle Tennessee State University | R+18.0 | 12.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Policy Polling | R+13.0 | 17.0 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middle Tennessee State University | 2014-10-24 | 558 | R+18.0 | 12 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 974 | R+22.0 | 8 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-10-18 | 595 | R+13.0 | 17 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 1007 | R+21.0 | 9 |