Tennessee Governor
Marsha Blackburn (R) is all but certain to win the 2026 Tennessee Governor race — about a 98% chance, winning by about 32 points in the projection. Updated daily from 1 poll.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 1 poll of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+32.3 — a 98% Republican win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.
Latest news
As governor, Jerri Green wants to erase your medical debt | OpinionNo Tennessean should have to choose between getting the medical care they need and keeping a roof over their family's head. But on the campaign trail, I have heard too many stories from people who were forced into exactly that impossible choice. I have met Te…
Biztoc.com · August 19, 2026
Sen. Marsha Blackburn Wins Republican Primary For Tennessee Governor, Defeating Fellow Trump AllyShe’s expected to face Memphis City Councilor Jerri Green in the general election this fall.
HuffPost · August 7, 2026
Live results: Jerri Green will win Democratic gubernatorial nomination in Tennessee, CNN projects | CNN PoliticsState Rep. Justin Pearson will win the Democratic nomination for Tennessee’s newly redrawn 9th District, CNN’s Decision Desk projects.
CNN · August 7, 2026
Blackburn Blames Gas Prices And Inflation On BidenSen. Marsha Blackburn, who's hoping to become the next Governor of Tennessee, served up a big heaping helping of Biden Tourette syndrome when she was asked by Hannity guest host Kellyanne Conway about her party's message to voters for the midterms. Never mind…
Crooksandliars.com · August 22, 2026
Trump’s Grip on GOP Slips Again With Tennessee LossTrump’s grip on GOP slips again with Tennessee House primary loss. A Republican gerrymander accidentally took down the fiery Islamophobe Andy Ogles, despite Trump’s backing. Gubernatorial candidate Marsha Blackburn was luckier.
New York Magazine · August 7, 2026
Tennessee Is Poised to Get Its First Female GovernorUnfortunately, that will probably be Marsha Blackburn.
Jezebel · August 7, 2026- US Sen. Marsha Blackburn wins GOP nomination for Tennessee governor - USA Today
US Sen. Marsha Blackburn wins GOP nomination for Tennessee governorUSA Today See more headlines & perspectives on Google News ...
Slashdot.org · August 7, 2026 - Blackburn Wins Republican Nomination for Tennessee Governor - nytimes.com
Blackburn Wins Republican Nomination for Tennessee Governornytimes.com US Sen. Marsha Blackburn wins GOP nomination for Tennessee governorUSA Today Conservative firebrand who went viral with anti-CCP ad survives key primaryFox News Three Democratic candidates…
Slashdot.org · August 7, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Tennessee Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Marsha Blackburn (R), with roughly a 98% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+32.3.
What do the polls say in the Tennessee Governor race?
There is 1 poll of this race. The most recent, from Targoz Market Research (2026-04-27), showed R+24.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+32.3.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Tennessee Governor race?
Jerri Green is the Democratic candidate; Marsha Blackburn is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Tennessee Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Tennessee Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.