Tennessee Governor
Marsha Blackburn (R) is all but certain to win the 2026 Tennessee Governor race — about a 99% chance, winning by about 18 points in the projection. Updated daily from 3 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 3 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+18.1 — a 100% Republican win.
Latest news
The Right Way to Handle the Death PenaltyPolitics / October 2, 2026 The Right Way to Handle the Death Penalty Even before her state botched another execution, gubernatorial candidate Jerri Green was telling Tennesseans that “the death penalty has always been inhumane, expensive, and…
Thenation.com · October 2, 2026
Tennessee Poll: Marsha Blackburn Has Commanding Lead in Governor's RaceA new poll from the Beacon Center in Tennessee finds Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn is well on her way to the Governor's Mansion in two months. Blackburn leads Democrat Jerri Green in the race to succeed two-term Gov. Bill Lee, with a 55 percent to 34 perce…
Breitbart News · September 3, 2026
As governor, Jerri Green wants to erase your medical debt | OpinionNo Tennessean should have to choose between getting the medical care they need and keeping a roof over their family's head. But on the campaign trail, I have heard too many stories from people who were forced into exactly that impossible choice. I have met Te…
Biztoc.com · August 19, 2026
Sen. Marsha Blackburn Wins Republican Primary For Tennessee Governor, Defeating Fellow Trump AllyShe’s expected to face Memphis City Councilor Jerri Green in the general election this fall.
HuffPost · August 7, 2026
Live results: Jerri Green will win Democratic gubernatorial nomination in Tennessee, CNN projects | CNN PoliticsState Rep. Justin Pearson will win the Democratic nomination for Tennessee’s newly redrawn 9th District, CNN’s Decision Desk projects.
CNN · August 7, 2026
She’s Definitely Not Like Us: Senator Marsha Blackburn Dragged For Cringe Kendrick Lamar AI-Slop VideoGOP Sen. Marsha Blackburn, who is currently running for Governor of Tennessee, is being swamped with well-deserved backlash after she shared AI-generated slop featuring herself as Kendrick Lamar performing his iconic Drake diss, "Not Like Us," flanked by Rep.…
Hip-Hop Wired · Yesterday
Marsha Blackburn Takes 'AI Cringe' To New Heights With Bonkers Kendrick Lamar VideoTennessee GOP Sen. Marsha Blackburn, who is running for governor, shared the bizarre video on social media.
HuffPost · Yesterday
'Almost Manic': Trump's Bizarre Jaw Movements Leave Clinical Psychologist UnsettledOver the weekend, Trump held another rally, this time in Clarksville, TN, as part of his desperate, last-ditch effort to bolster his foundering party ahead of the midterm elections -- an event one clinical and forensic psychologist has called a "wild thing to…
Crooksandliars.com · October 12, 2026
‘Almost manic’: Trump’s odd jaw movement catches psychologist’s eyeA clinical and forensic psychologist breaking down President Donald Trump’s weekend rally in Tennessee flagged a moment he called “a really wild thing to watch”: Trump told the crowd he could say the stupidest things and they’d clap, and they did.Dr. John Pau…
Raw Story · October 12, 2026
'I Could Say Stupidest Things and You'd Clap,' Trump SaysPresident Trump boasted Saturday that he could blurt out nonsense and still get cheers from his supporters—and in Tennessee, he leaned into that hypothesis. Campaigning for Sens. Bill Hagerty and Marsha Blackburn, the president told a packed arena in Clarksvi…
Newser · October 11, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Tennessee Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Marsha Blackburn (R), with roughly a 99% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+18.1.
What do the polls say in the Tennessee Governor race?
There are 3 polls of this race. The most recent, from TargetSmart (2026-09-12), showed R+9.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+18.1.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Tennessee Governor race?
Jerri Green is the Democratic candidate; Marsha Blackburn is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Tennessee Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Tennessee Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.