Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 1 poll of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+32.3 — a 98% Republican win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.
Forecast over time
The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.
Latest news
Republicans lean into anti-Asian racism ahead of midtermsIt’s election season and, like clockwork, some conservatives are resorting to anti-Asian racism and anti-Chinese xenophobia as the Republican Party faces a potential shellacking in this year’s midterms. The below campaign ad featuring Sen. Marsha Blackburn, a…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
Exclusive—Sen. Marsha Blackburn: Tennessee Must Show America How to Stand Up to Communist Chinaas Tennessee's next governor, I will continue supporting the values and traditions that have made our agricultural communities strong for generations. That means standing up to outside international actors like the Chinese Communist Party and preventing them …
Breitbart News · Yesterday
Marsha Blackburn Destroys Fortune Cookies in Anti-China Campaign AdTennessee Republican Senator Marsha Blackburn has posted an anti-China campaign ad on social media, where she destroys fortune cookies and vows to "stop communist China and protect Tennessee land." Seated in what appears to be a Chinese restaurant, the senato…
Biztoc.com · Yesterday
Republican Senator Crumbles Fortune Cookies While Vowing to ‘Stop Communist China’Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) smashed fortune cookies into crumbs while declaring she would "stop Communist China" in a video posted Wednesday on X as part of her Tennessee gubernatorial campaign. The post Republican Senator Crumbles Fortune Cookies While Vowi…
Mediaite · Yesterday
Mad scramble as 'wave of departures' set to crash on powerful congressional committeesThe 2026 midterms are still months away, but the fight to land a seat on Congress's two most powerful tax-writing panels is already underway, Politico reports, with dozens of lawmakers in both parties angling for a spot on the House Ways and Means Committee o…
Raw Story · July 6, 2026
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Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research | 2026-04-27 | 1157 | R+24.0 |