Tennessee Governor
Marsha Blackburn (R) is all but certain to win the 2026 Tennessee Governor race — about a 99% chance, winning by about 18 points in the projection. Updated daily from 3 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 3 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+18.2 — a 100% Republican win.
Latest news
The Right Way to Handle the Death PenaltyPolitics / October 2, 2026 The Right Way to Handle the Death Penalty Even before her state botched another execution, gubernatorial candidate Jerri Green was telling Tennesseans that “the death penalty has always been inhumane, expensive, and…
Thenation.com · October 2, 2026
Tennessee Poll: Marsha Blackburn Has Commanding Lead in Governor's RaceA new poll from the Beacon Center in Tennessee finds Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn is well on her way to the Governor's Mansion in two months. Blackburn leads Democrat Jerri Green in the race to succeed two-term Gov. Bill Lee, with a 55 percent to 34 perce…
Breitbart News · September 3, 2026
As governor, Jerri Green wants to erase your medical debt | OpinionNo Tennessean should have to choose between getting the medical care they need and keeping a roof over their family's head. But on the campaign trail, I have heard too many stories from people who were forced into exactly that impossible choice. I have met Te…
Biztoc.com · August 19, 2026
Sen. Marsha Blackburn Wins Republican Primary For Tennessee Governor, Defeating Fellow Trump AllyShe’s expected to face Memphis City Councilor Jerri Green in the general election this fall.
HuffPost · August 7, 2026
Live results: Jerri Green will win Democratic gubernatorial nomination in Tennessee, CNN projects | CNN PoliticsState Rep. Justin Pearson will win the Democratic nomination for Tennessee’s newly redrawn 9th District, CNN’s Decision Desk projects.
CNN · August 7, 2026
- Christa Pike is 'angry and confused' and can't move her arms after failed execution
Christa Pike is "up and walking" in the hospital after surviving last week's failed attempt to execute her in Tennessee, a member of her legal team said Thursday.Lawyer Stephen Ferrell told BBC Radio 4's Today program that he had learned she was moving around…
Yahoo Entertainment · Yesterday - Christa Pike is 'angry and confused' and can't move her arms after failed execution
Christa Pike is feeling "angry and confused" after waking up in the hospital in the wake of a failed execution attempt that left her with severe physical health challenges that put her on a "long road to recovery," her attorneys said on Wednesday. Pike had be…
Yahoo Entertainment · October 7, 2026 
WWE legend Kane open to Tennessee Senate appointment as Blackburn eyes governor's mansionGlenn Jacobs, the WWE legend known as "Kane," says he would accept a Senate appointment if Marsha Blackburn wins the Tennessee governor's race.
Fox News · October 7, 2026
Every Active Federal Judge in Nashville Recuses From Jack Smith CaseAll four active U.S. district judges in Middle Tennessee have recused themselves from a lawsuit brought by Republican Tennessee Senator Marsha Blackburn against former special counsel Jack Smith over the collection of her phone records. Blackburn filed the la…
Biztoc.com · October 6, 2026- Former Army major who killed 13 in Fort Hood shooting to be executed by firing squad
Nidal Malik Hasan, a former Army major who killed 13 people in a 2009 mass shooting at Fort Hood, Texas, will be executed by firing squad, the Pentagon announced Monday."Secretary of War Pete Hegseth has recommended — and President Donald J. Trump has approve…
Yahoo Entertainment · October 6, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Tennessee Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Marsha Blackburn (R), with roughly a 99% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+18.2.
What do the polls say in the Tennessee Governor race?
There are 3 polls of this race. The most recent, from TargetSmart (2026-09-12), showed R+9.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+18.2.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Tennessee Governor race?
Jerri Green is the Democratic candidate; Marsha Blackburn is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Tennessee Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Tennessee Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.