Actual result
R+27.8
Final polls said
R+14.6
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+21.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Remington Research Group | R+25.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+21.6 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of Arkansas Department of Political Science | R+19.1 | 8.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Hendrix College | R+10.0 | 17.8 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Arkansas Department of Political Science | 2022-10-22 | 557 | R+19.1 | 9 |
| Hendrix College | 2022-10-17 | 974 | R+10.0 | 18 |
| Remington Research Group | 2022-09-14 | 1418 | R+25.0 | 3 |
| Hendrix College | 2022-09-12 | 835 | R+11.0 | 17 |