Actual result
D+18.1
Final polls said
R+3.8
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
D+3.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VI TechStack | D+22.8 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+3.8 | 14.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Island Analytics & Marketing, LLC | R+3.8 | 21.9 | ✗ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Island Analytics & Marketing, LLC | 2022-10-18 | 423 | R+3.8 | 22 |
| VI TechStack | 2022-09-10 | 650 | D+22.8 | 5 |