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Toss-up · 2022 Governor
Vermont Governor
In the 2022 Vermont Governor race, Phil Scott (R) won by about 47 points.
Actual result
R+47.0
Final polls said
R+41.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Data for Progress | R+41.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | R+17.0 | 30.0 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Data for Progress2022-10-236
University of New Hampshire Survey Center2022-10-0130
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Vermont Governor race?
Phil Scott (R) won, by about 47.0 points (R+47.0).
When was the 2022 Vermont Governor election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.