Actual result
R+47.0
Final polls said
R+41.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+39.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Data for Progress | R+41.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+39.0 | 8.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | R+17.0 | 30.0 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress | 2022-10-23 | 1039 | R+41.0 | 6 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2022-10-01 | 765 | R+17.0 | 30 |