Actual result
R+34.6
Final polls said
R+24.4
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+28.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of Arkansas Department of Political Science | R+28.8 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+28.5 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Hendrix College | R+20.0 | 14.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Fox News | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Race to the WH | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 13 | Split Ticket | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 14 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Arkansas Department of Political Science | 2022-10-22 | 557 | R+28.8 | 6 |
| Hendrix College | 2022-10-17 | 974 | R+20.0 | 15 |
| Hendrix College | 2022-09-12 | 835 | R+13.0 | 22 |