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Toss-up · 2022 Senate
Arkansas Senate
In the 2022 Arkansas Senate race, John Boozman (R) won by about 35 points.
Actual result
R+34.6
Final polls said
R+24.4
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of Arkansas Department of Political Science | R+28.8 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Hendrix College | R+20.0 | 14.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Fox News | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Race to the WH | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 13 | Split Ticket | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 14 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
University of Arkansas Department of Political Science2022-10-226
Hendrix College2022-10-1715
Hendrix College2022-09-1222
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Arkansas Senate race?
John Boozman (R) won, by about 34.6 points (R+34.6).
When was the 2022 Arkansas Senate election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.