Actual result
D+13.1
Final polls said
D+17.4
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+16.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western New England University Polling Institute | D+13.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | D+12.3 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Quinnipiac University | D+15.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+16.1 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | D+5.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Long Island University Steven S. Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling, and Analysis | D+25.0 | 11.9 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Elections Daily | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | Race to the WH | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | Split Ticket | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 13 | Fox News | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Island University Steven S. Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling, and Analysis | 2022-10-25 | 1004 | D+25.0 | 12 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2022-10-21 | 1879 | D+15.0 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-20 | 1000 | D+12.3 | 1 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | 2022-10-12 | 1200 | D+5.0 | 8 |
| Western New England University Polling Institute | 2022-09-18 | 626 | D+13.0 | 0 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2022-09-17 | 1911 | D+17.0 | 4 |