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Toss-up · 2022 Senate
Connecticut Senate
In the 2022 Connecticut Senate race, Richard Blumenthal (D) won by about 13 points.
Actual result
D+13.1
Final polls said
D+17.4
3 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western New England University Polling Institute | D+13.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | D+12.3 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Quinnipiac University | D+15.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | D+5.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Long Island University Steven S. Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling, and Analysis | D+25.0 | 11.9 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Elections Daily | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | Race to the WH | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | Split Ticket | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 13 | Fox News | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Long Island University Steven S. Hornstein Center for Policy, Polling, and Analysis2022-10-2512
Quinnipiac University2022-10-212
Emerson College2022-10-201
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates2022-10-128
Western New England University Polling Institute2022-09-180
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Connecticut Senate race?
Richard Blumenthal (D) won, by about 13.1 points (D+13.1).
When was the 2022 Connecticut Senate election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.