Actual result
R+29.4
Final polls said
R+16.2
8 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+20.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | R+22.6 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+20.7 | 8.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Ascend Action | R+20.0 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Bruno Political Consulting | R+12.1 | 17.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | Amber Integrated | R+11.0 | 18.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | SoonerPoll.com | R+8.7 | 20.7 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Fox News | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Race to the WH | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 13 | Split Ticket | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 14 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (18)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ascend Action | 2022-11-05 | 682 | R+20.0 | 12 |
| Ascend Action | 2022-11-05 | 682 | R+12.0 | 15 |
| Amber Integrated | 2022-10-27 | 501 | R+11.0 | 16 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-27 | 1000 | R+22.6 | 4 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-27 | 1000 | R+27.3 | 5 |
| Amber Integrated | 2022-10-27 | 501 | R+14.0 | 18 |
| Ascend Action | 2022-10-26 | 749 | R+17.0 | 15 |
| Ascend Action | 2022-10-26 | 749 | R+6.0 | 21 |
| Amber Integrated | 2022-10-14 | 500 | R+13.0 | 14 |
| Amber Integrated | 2022-10-14 | 500 | R+16.0 | 16 |
| Ascend Action | 2022-10-11 | 638 | R+11.0 | 16 |
| Ascend Action | 2022-10-11 | 638 | R+14.0 | 18 |
| SoonerPoll.com | 2022-10-05 | 301 | R+8.7 | 18 |
| SoonerPoll.com | 2022-10-05 | 301 | R+11.3 | 21 |
| Amber Integrated | 2022-09-20 | 500 | R+18.0 | 14 |
| Amber Integrated | 2022-09-20 | 500 | R+11.0 | 16 |
| Bruno Political Consulting | 2022-09-17 | 2989 | R+12.1 | 14 |
| Bruno Political Consulting | 2022-09-17 | 2989 | R+22.4 | 10 |