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Toss-up · 2022 Senate
Oklahoma Senate
In the 2022 Oklahoma Senate race, James Lankford (R) won by about 32 points.
Actual result
R+32.2
Final polls said
R+16.2
8 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | R+22.6 | 9.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Ascend Action | R+20.0 | 12.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Bruno Political Consulting | R+12.1 | 20.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Amber Integrated | R+11.0 | 21.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | SoonerPoll.com | R+8.7 | 23.5 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | Elections Daily | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Fox News | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | Race to the WH | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | RealClearPolitics | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 13 | Split Ticket | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 14 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
18 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Ascend Action2022-11-0512
Ascend Action2022-11-0515
Amber Integrated2022-10-2716
Emerson College2022-10-274
Emerson College2022-10-275
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 Oklahoma Senate race?
James Lankford (R) won, by about 32.2 points (R+32.2).
When was the 2022 Oklahoma Senate election held?
It was held in November 2022.