Nebraska President

Actual result

D+4.6

Final polls said

D+10.0

2 late polls · ✓

Model predicted

D+9.9

✓

Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	YouGov	D+8.0	3.4	✓
2	VotePredictor	D+9.9	5.3	✓
3	The New York Times/Siena College	D+12.0	7.4	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	CNalysis	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
2	VotePredictor	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
3	The Economist	Dem 98%	0.001	✓
4	Silver Bulletin	Dem 93%	0.005	✓
5	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 92%	0.006	✓
6	Race to the WH	Dem 92%	0.006	✓
7	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
8	Cook Political	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
9	JHK Forecasts	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
10	Elections Daily	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
11	Split Ticket	Dem 88%	0.014	✓
12	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 82%	0.032	✓
13	Inside Elections	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
14	Fox News	Dem 75%	0.062	✓

Polls (2)

Pollster	Date	n	Poll	Miss
The New York Times/Siena College	2024-10-24	500	D+12.0	7
YouGov	2024-10-24	393	D+8.0	3